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Lux 
Trading Firm Prediction Markets Review 2026
7.3 out of 10
The short answer
Lux is the only firm in our prediction markets table that tells you who it is. The footer names Lux Trading Firm Ltd, UK company number 13160991 at 128 City Road in London, plus a Dubai entity, both with working phone numbers. Set against rivals that publish no company at all, that alone moves it up the table. Add a business that has been running a forex programme since 2020 and you have a firm with something to lose, which is the closest thing to a payout guarantee this category currently offers.
How the 7.3 adds up
4 plans
Prices are identical across GBP, USD and EUR, so a 10,000 account costs 85 in whichever currency you pick. Every tier runs the same rules. Lux also lists a free trial for each size, and refunds the fee in full once you pass the evaluation.
Challenge rules
Challenge Rules
| Evaluation type | One step, then straight to the funded stage |
| Profit target | 10% of starting balance, from fully closed positions only |
| Maximum loss | 4% of initial balance, measured on equity in real time including open positions |
| Time limit | None, on both the evaluation and the funded stage |
| Max risk per topic category | 1% of account size across all open trades in one category |
| Max earn per trade | 2x the risk on that trade, capped at 2% of account size. Excess does not count |
| Floating profit | Does not count toward the target |
| Fee refund | 100% refunded on passing the evaluation stage |
Our verdict: 7.3 out of 10
Lux Trading Firm added a prediction markets account in 2026 alongside its established forex and CFD programme. It is a one-step evaluation with a 10% profit target from closed positions, a 4% maximum equity loss and no time limit, priced from 45 in GBP, USD or EUR. The fee is refunded in full when you pass. Use our code FT5 for 5% off.
The evaluation is the easiest in the category on paper. A 10% target is half what most rivals ask, there is no time limit, and passing refunds your fee in full. The catch is the 4% maximum loss, measured on equity in real time including open positions. On a 10,000 account that is 400, and prediction contracts can move hard on a single headline. You are being asked to make 1,000 while never being 400 down at any moment, which is a tighter rope than the headline target suggests.
The rule that deserves the most attention is the payout cap, because it does not just delay money, it deletes it. Your eligible profit is capped at 35% of the initial balance on the first payout, 45% on the second and 50% after that, and Lux states plainly that anything above those thresholds is disqualified and permanently removed from your balance. A trader who runs a 10,000 account to 5,000 profit before their first withdrawal window keeps the split on 3,500 and loses the rest outright. The correct strategy is to withdraw on schedule rather than compound, which is the opposite of what most traders instinctively do.
Traders coming from the Polymarket-native firms should expect a much tighter cage. Hedging is banned inside and across accounts, only one position per question is allowed, entries are limited to the 10 to 90 cent band, and bots, scripts and HFT are prohibited with manual entry only. Compared with Funding Predicts, which puts you on live order books, Lux is a more controlled and more restricted product. If you want the freest ruleset in the category, PropMarket is the better fit.
One thing we will not repeat uncritically is the regulation framing. The prediction markets page carries an officially regulated member badge, while the site footer states the company does not carry out regulated activities and is not required to be authorized by a regulatory authority. That badge refers to trade association membership, not regulation, and traders should read it that way. Even so, Lux suits a forecaster who wants a low target, a refundable fee, a real company behind the account and support they can phone. It suits nobody who plans to hedge, automate, or let a big win ride past the cap. Our score reflects the strongest transparency in the category held back by a payout structure that quietly takes profit off the table.
Lux Trading Firm Prediction Markets in numbers
- Profit Target
- 10%
- Max Loss
- 4%
- Time Limit
- None
- Entry Fee
- From 45
- Fee Refund
- 100%
- Profit Split
- 70% to 80%
- Payout Cycle
- 10 days
- Max Capital
- 50,000
Closed positions only
Equity, from initial balance
Evaluation and funded
GBP, USD or EUR
On passing the evaluation
80% from the 3rd payout
From last approved payout
Across all your accounts
7 pros, 8 cons
Pros
- Publishes two registered companies with numbers, addresses and phone lines, rare in this category
- Challenge fee refunded in full when you pass, so a successful evaluation costs nothing
- Free trial account available before you pay
- No time limit on the evaluation or the funded stage
- 10% profit target is the lowest in the category
- Rulebook is unusually detailed, with worked examples for every limit
- Accounts in GBP, USD and EUR, with live chat and published phone support
Cons
- Profit above the cycle cap is permanently removed from your balance
- Split starts at 70% and only reaches 80% from the third payout
- 4% maximum loss is tight and is measured on equity in real time, including open positions
- Total capital capped at 50,000 across every account you hold
- Entries only allowed between 10 and 90 cents
- Hedging, copy trading, bots, scripts and HFT are all banned
- Only one active position per prediction question
- Prediction product launched in 2026, so it has no payout record of its own yet
Payouts and trading conditions
Funded Account and Payouts
| First payout | 10 days after the funded account is created |
| Later payouts | Every 10 days from your last approved withdrawal |
| Split, payouts 1 and 2 | 70% to the trader |
| Split, payout 3 onward | 80% to the trader |
| Eligible profit cap | 35% of initial balance on payout 1, 45% on payout 2, 50% from payout 3 |
| Profit above the cap | Disqualified and permanently removed from the balance at payout processing |
| Open positions at payout | All positions must be closed. Payouts come from settled balance only |
| Minimum trades | None required to request a payout |
| Max capital | 50,000 total across every account under one identity |
| KYC | Required before any payout is released |
More on Lux Trading Firm Prediction Markets
Platform and Market Restrictions
| Entry price band | 10 cents to 90 cents only. Orders outside the band are rejected automatically |
| Topic categories | Politics and geopolitics, sports and gaming, crypto and markets, culture, weather |
| Positions per question | One active position per prediction question at a time |
| Hedging | Banned, both inside one account and across multiple accounts |
| Automated trading | Banned. No bots, scripts, browser extensions or HFT. Manual entry only |
| Copy trading | Banned, including mirroring your own positions across your accounts |
| Latency exploitation | Banned. Lux may void or correct affected trades retroactively, even days later |
| Mispricing | Traders are required to report obvious mispricing rather than trade it |
Lux Trading Firm Coupon Code
Our Lux Trading Firm code is FT5, giving 5% off any challenge including the prediction markets accounts. Apply it at checkout using the link on this page.
| Our code | FT5 |
| Discount | 5% off |
| FT5 applies to | Lux challenges including prediction markets accounts |
| Stacks with the refund | Yes. The fee you pay is refunded in full when you pass |
| Last verified | August 2026 |
Lux Trading Firm is one of 8 prediction market firms we rank. See where it places in our full prediction market rankings.
3 alternatives to Lux Trading Firm Prediction Markets
Firms in the same category with a comparable score, each offering something Lux does not.
PropMarket
Funding PredictsReview date:
Best for
Prediction traders who value paperwork: two registered companies with addresses and phone lines, a fully refunded fee on passing, a free trial, and no time limits.
Avoid if
You aim big. Profit above the cycle cap is permanently removed, the split starts at 70%, the 4% loss limit is measured on real-time equity, and total capital caps at 50,000.
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10% target, no time limit, fee refunded when you pass. Use code FT5 for 5% off.
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